Hold or hike? Economists divided on whether RBA will raise interest rates for 11th consecutive time

The Reserve Bank of Australia faces its most challenging interest rate decision on Tuesday since it began raising borrowing costs last May, with economists divided on whether a record 11th consecutive hike or a pause will result.

Another 25 basis point rise would lift monthly repayments on a typical $500,000 mortgage by about $78. All up, the monthly increases over the past 11 months would exceed $1,000 for such borrowers, according to RateCity.

The RBA governor, Philip Lowe, last month flagged the possibility of a rates pause depending on how the data played out. The figures since have been mixed, with surprisingly strong labour market figures for February and then weaker-than-expected inflation numbers for the month.

Investors have been betting on a pre-Easter RBA rates pause since the recent failure of several banks in the US and the forced takeover of Credit Suisse by its Swiss rival UBS.

Hogan predicts the RBA will lift the cash rate by another 25 basis points on Tuesday and may have another two rate increases to come to prevent inflation becoming entrenched well above its 2% to 3% target over the medium term.

One trend that appears to be turning is the trajectory of property prices. A national home value index compiled by data group CoreLogic found prices ticked up 0.6% in March, the first month-on-month rise since April 2022.

Sydney, which had led the way lower for home prices, is leading the way back up, with a 1.4% gain last month.